why me betting on sports would be a bad idea

This year I've been participating in a Yahoo! contest to pick college football games against the spread. Each week you pick every game with a top-25 team, with the Vegas point spread factored in. Until I was away from my computer and didn't get my picks in two weeks ago, I was doing pretty well - I'd been consistently in the top 5 percent of everyone participating (I believe there's a few hundred thousand picking).

Not counting the week I missed, I've been able to pick the correct winner 50.1 percent of the time. And that puts me in the top 5 percent in the country. That would be a money-losing rate if I was betting these games, especially since the number is slightly inflated - Yahoo! has you pick games between I-A and I-AA schools that Vegas doesn't set lines for, so it's just a straight-up pick (and outside Michigan, a guaranteed correct one). According to an article in the Wall Street Journal a while back, you need to win 53.5 percent of the time to make money in Vegas, because they take a cut of each bet.

Of course, if I was betting, I wouldn't be betting on every game. I'd only bet the ones I felt confident about. And I'd probably end up worse off than if I'd bet every game.

I do miss the New Zealand sports books in every bar. You could even bet on American sports. There, it wasn't even against a spread - instead, you won more money for betting on an underdog than a favorite. I didn't bet a lot, but I did every so often. It was kind of like a lottery with a smaller payout and a few more payouts.